| Abstract |
Introduction:
Lately, climate change has been a major concern for the scientific community, while human activity is regarded to be a key factor in accelerating the phenomenon. In a world, where the incidence of vector and insect borne diseases increases, while concurrently, vectors spread rapidly, studying the interaction between these two factors is considered imperative.
Methods:
In this work, a correlation study was attempted between the climate change and the altering incidence of insect borne diseases in Greece. For this purpose, disease (malaria, leishmaniasis and West Nile fever) cases and climatic (mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and mean annual humidity) data were gathered, during the years 1962 – 2016, and the correlation Pearson test was performed for each pair of climatic variable – disease. Moreover, an investigation was performed, on how the prevention methods have been organized in the country, since the first anti – malaria actions.
Results:
The processing of the aforementioned climatic data shows that climate in Greece is changing (increase of mean annual temperature, decrease of mean annual precipitation), according with the statements of the official organizations studying climate change on a global scale. Correlations show that precipitation could be considered as the most important climatic condition, affecting the incidence of insect borne diseases in Greece (malaria: ρ = 0,351, p = 0,021, leishmaniasis, ρ = 0,370, p = 0,02), considering the fact that there have been several limitations, such as unreliability of the recording system and the absence of precipitation data of the last 12 years, which did not allow the correlation investigation with the incidence of West Nile fever (an infection which is recorded only during the last 6 years of the study period). Moreover, leishmaniasis is moderately correlated with mean annual humidity (ρ = 0,337, p = 0,016), while no significant statistical correlation arose between any of the studied diseases and temperature. This lack of correlation could be attributed either to the fact that the correlation was studied on an annual basis, but not on a seasonal one or it could suggest that Greece has always been in terms of temperature, favorable for insect borne diseases and other changing climatic factors, such as precipitation, have altered their incidence. Furthermore, some socio-economic parameters, which many field researchers recognize as important regulators of this relationship, are noted, though not examined. Finally, prevention actions, while national – centered in the past, have been redirected in the jurisdictions of local authorities, even though the Ministry of Health continues to set the basic principles of organization and coordination among the various parties involved.
Conclusions:
In conclusion, the continuous presence of insect borne diseases in the country, proves that Greece remains climate - appropriate for insect – transmittable pathogens and their vectors. Correlations show that precipitation affects this relationship, possibly in a statistically significant way, during the study period, a finding that should be evaluated with caution due to several study limitations. Therefore, additional research and study are required, in order to organize prevention strategy plans, properly. Since further climatic changes are presumed, according to official predictions, the epidemiological status of insect – borne diseases in Greece is expected to change, in the long – term future, which certainly requires deeper knowledge and preparedness. Finally, there are several socioeconomic and other non measurable factors, that are likely to unpredictably
affect the relationship.
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Κλιματικές αλλαγές, επίπτωση και πρόληψη νοσημάτων που μεταδίδονται με έντομα στην Ελλάδα
